Labour MarketLagging

Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate is the percentage of the labor force that is jobless, available for work, and actively seeking work. To be counted as unemployed, a person generally must have:

Provider
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Survey
Current Population Survey (CPS)
Frequency
Monthly

At A Glance#

FieldDetail
ProviderU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Survey / ToolCurrent Population Survey (CPS) — conducted by the Census Bureau for BLS
FrequencyMonthly
Indicator TypeLagging
Main UseHeadline measure of labor-market weakness
Live SeriesTrading Economics — Unemployment Rate

What It Is#

The Unemployment Rate is the percentage of the labor force that is jobless, available for work, and actively seeking work. To be counted as unemployed, a person generally must have:

  • Not been employed during the survey reference week
  • Been available for work (except for temporary illness)
  • Made a specific, active effort to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the survey reference week

Exception: People on temporary layoff waiting to be recalled do not need to actively search to be counted as unemployed.

Who Provides It#

BLS publishes the Unemployment Rate using the Current Population Survey (CPS) — the same monthly household survey conducted by the Census Bureau that produces the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR).

How It Is Collected#

  • Monthly survey of approximately 60,000 U.S. households.
  • Interviewers ask each household member about employment status and job-search activity during the reference week (usually the week containing the 12th of the month).

Broad categories inside unemployment:

CategoryDefinition
Job losersTemporary layoffs, permanent job losers, and people who completed temporary jobs
Job leaversPeople who voluntarily quit
ReentrantsPeople who previously worked, left the labor force, and are now searching again
New entrantsPeople who have never worked before

BLS also tracks unemployment duration — mean and median weeks unemployed — to gauge whether spells are short or long.

How It Is Computed#

Unemployment Rate=UnemployedLabor Force×100\text{Unemployment Rate} = \frac{\text{Unemployed}}{\text{Labor Force}} \times 100

Where Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed.

Indicator Type#

Lagging. Employers usually wait until a recession is firmly in place before laying people off, and wait until a recovery is secure before hiring again. The unemployment rate therefore rises after economic weakness has already started and falls after recovery is already underway. The 4-week active-search requirement adds another structural delay.

Why It Matters#

A high unemployment rate signals labor-market weakness and income stress; a low rate usually signals a tight labor market. However, the unemployment rate must always be read alongside the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR): a falling unemployment rate driven by people leaving the labor force (discouraged workers, retirees) is not the same as one driven by genuine job creation.

The Federal Reserve uses the unemployment rate as part of its assessment of "maximum employment" under its dual mandate.

Sources#

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