Business Activity
PMI surveys of manufacturing and services — the economy's forward pulse.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
ISM Manufacturing PMI is a monthly diffusion index measuring U.S. manufacturing sector activity. It is based on survey responses from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Because factories must order raw materials and ramp up pro…
ReadISM Services PMI
ISM Services PMI is a monthly diffusion index measuring U.S. non-manufacturing (services) sector activity. Because the U.S. is heavily service-driven — with services comprising roughly 70–80% of total GDP — this index captures the health…
ReadS&P Global Manufacturing PMI
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is a monthly diffusion index measuring U.S. manufacturing sector activity, published by S&P Global Market Intelligence (formerly known as Markit). It covers similar ground to ISM Manufacturing PMI but uses a…
ReadS&P Global Services PMI
S&P Global Services PMI is a monthly survey measuring activity in the U.S. services sector. It serves as an alternative and complement to ISM Services PMI, but with a critical structural difference: the headline index is a single busines…
ReadAll indicators in this section are PMI-based. See PMI Diffusion Index Explained for the diffusion index formula and the full ISM vs S&P Global comparison.
Indicator Map#
Appendix Table#
| Indicator | Link | Provider | Panel | Release | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | Open note | ISM | ~400 mfg companies | 1st business day | Leading |
| ISM Services PMI | Open note | ISM | ~400+ services companies | 3rd business day | Leading |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | Open note | S&P Global | ~600 mfg companies | Flash mid-month; Final next month | Leading |
| S&P Global Services PMI | Open note | S&P Global | ~400 services companies | Flash mid-month; Final next month | Leading / Coincident |
PMI Reading Key#
| Reading | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Above 50 | Sector expanding |
| Below 50 | Sector contracting |
| Exactly 50 | No change |
How To Read#
- Manufacturing health: ISM Manufacturing PMI is the legacy domestic benchmark; S&P Global Manufacturing PMI gives a Flash estimate mid-month and is used for international comparisons.
- Services health: ISM Services PMI is the composite benchmark (4 components); S&P Global Services PMI is a single business activity question — read both for a fuller picture.
- Early warning: S&P Global's Flash releases (mid-month) give a 2-week head start over ISM's final month-end prints.
- ISM vs S&P divergence: When both agree, the signal is strong. When they diverge, check whether the gap is driven by the difference in sector scope or company size — see PMI Diffusion Index Explained.
Clean Macro Read#
When all four PMIs are above 50 and rising, business activity is broadly expanding across both manufacturing and services. When ISM Manufacturing PMI drops below 50 while services PMIs stay elevated, it often signals a sector-specific slowdown rather than a full recession. A broad drop below 50 in all four — especially in New Orders sub-components — is a strong leading recession warning.