Topic · 4 indicators

Business Activity

PMI surveys of manufacturing and services — the economy's forward pulse.

Indicators

All indicators in this section are PMI-based. See PMI Diffusion Index Explained for the diffusion index formula and the full ISM vs S&P Global comparison.

Indicator Map#

Appendix Table#

IndicatorLinkProviderPanelReleaseType
ISM Manufacturing PMIOpen noteISM~400 mfg companies1st business dayLeading
ISM Services PMIOpen noteISM~400+ services companies3rd business dayLeading
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIOpen noteS&P Global~600 mfg companiesFlash mid-month; Final next monthLeading
S&P Global Services PMIOpen noteS&P Global~400 services companiesFlash mid-month; Final next monthLeading / Coincident

PMI Reading Key#

ReadingMeaning
Above 50Sector expanding
Below 50Sector contracting
Exactly 50No change

How To Read#

  • Manufacturing health: ISM Manufacturing PMI is the legacy domestic benchmark; S&P Global Manufacturing PMI gives a Flash estimate mid-month and is used for international comparisons.
  • Services health: ISM Services PMI is the composite benchmark (4 components); S&P Global Services PMI is a single business activity question — read both for a fuller picture.
  • Early warning: S&P Global's Flash releases (mid-month) give a 2-week head start over ISM's final month-end prints.
  • ISM vs S&P divergence: When both agree, the signal is strong. When they diverge, check whether the gap is driven by the difference in sector scope or company size — see PMI Diffusion Index Explained.

Clean Macro Read#

When all four PMIs are above 50 and rising, business activity is broadly expanding across both manufacturing and services. When ISM Manufacturing PMI drops below 50 while services PMIs stay elevated, it often signals a sector-specific slowdown rather than a full recession. A broad drop below 50 in all four — especially in New Orders sub-components — is a strong leading recession warning.