Consumer Activity
What households earn, spend, and expect — roughly 70% of GDP.
Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations
Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations is the median expected price change over the next 12 months, as reported by U.S. consumers. It measures future inflation expectations, not actual inflation — which is what makes it a leading indicator.
ReadMichigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations
Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations measures the median expected annual inflation rate over the longer-run horizon (5–10 years). Central banks and the Fed watch this closely because it reveals whether consumers believe inflation will…
ReadMichigan Consumer Sentiment
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (formally the Index of Consumer Sentiment, ICS) is a broad gauge of how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their own financial situation and the general state of the economy. Confident consumers te…
ReadPersonal Income
Personal Income measures the total income received by all U.S. individuals from all sources — wages, business ownership, investments, and government transfers. It is the income side of the same BEA report that publishes Personal Spending…
ReadPersonal Spending
Personal Spending is the volume side of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data — it measures the total dollar value of all goods and services consumed by U.S. households. Unlike Retail Sales, which only captures goods sold at s…
ReadRetail Sales
Retail Sales measures the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. It is measured in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation) and includes both cash and credit sales, but excludes sales ta…
ReadRetail Sales ex Auto
Retail Sales ex Auto is the headline Retail Sales figure with motor vehicle and parts dealers removed (NAICS 441). It gives a smoother, more representative view of underlying consumer spending habits by stripping out one of the most vola…
ReadIndicators split into hard spending data (what consumers actually spent/earned) and soft survey data (what consumers expect and feel). See Michigan Surveys of Consumers for the methodology and why soft data matters to the Fed.
Indicator Map#
Appendix Table#
| Indicator | Link | Provider | Frequency | What It Tells Us | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales | Open note | Census Bureau | Monthly | Total store receipts — pulse on consumer goods demand | Coincident |
| Retail Sales ex Auto | Open note | Census Bureau | Monthly | Retail Sales with volatile auto category removed | Coincident |
| Personal Spending | Open note | BEA | Monthly | All consumer spending incl. services; ~70% of GDP | Coincident |
| Personal Income | Open note | BEA | Monthly | Total income from all sources; underpins future spending | Coincident |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment | Open note | Univ. of Michigan | Monthly | Broad gauge of consumer optimism; predicts future spending | Leading |
| Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations | Open note | Univ. of Michigan | Monthly | Near-term inflation psychology; wage-price spiral risk | Leading |
| Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations | Open note | Univ. of Michigan | Monthly | Long-run anchoring; Fed's most-watched sentiment indicator | Leading |
How To Read#
- Are consumers spending? Retail Sales and Retail Sales ex Auto give the fastest read on goods demand (~2 weeks after month-end).
- Broadest spending picture: Personal Spending covers services and third-party spending — the number that feeds directly into GDP.
- Can they keep spending? Personal Income shows whether the income base is growing to support future consumption.
- Will they spend tomorrow? Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads actual spending by 1–3 months.
- Inflation psychology: Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations signals near-term wage-price spiral risk; Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations tells the Fed whether long-run expectations are anchored.
Clean Macro Read#
A healthy consumer picture shows growing Retail Sales and Personal Spending backed by rising Personal Income, with Michigan Consumer Sentiment stable or improving and inflation expectations in Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations anchored near 2–3%. The danger scenario is falling sentiment alongside rising inflation expectations — consumers who expect prices to stay high cut spending pre-emptively, creating a self-reinforcing slowdown.