Growth (GDP)
The economy's scorecard — total output across every sector.
Currently one indicator. The diagram shows the GDP expenditure formula components.
Indicator Map#
Appendix Table#
| Indicator | Link | Provider | Frequency | What It Tells Us | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Domestic Product (GDP) | Open note | BEA — NIPAs | Quarterly (3 releases) | Total output of the U.S. economy; the economy's scorecard | Coincident |
How To Read#
- Headline number: Real GDP QoQ growth at a compounded annual rate. Markets care most about the Advance estimate (~4 weeks after quarter-end).
- Quality check: GDP driven by C (consumer spending) + I (business investment) is healthy. GDP boosted by inventory build-up or falling imports needs scrutiny — neither is necessarily sustainable.
- Leading signals: ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI New Orders sub-components typically signal GDP direction 1–2 months before the Advance estimate.
- Recession indicator: Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP is the informal rule; NBER uses GDP plus employment, income, and spending data for its official determination.
Clean Macro Read#
Strong real GDP growth — especially when driven by C and I rather than inventory builds — confirms broad economic expansion. Weak or negative GDP, particularly alongside rising Unemployment Rate and falling ISM Manufacturing PMI, is the official confirmation of a recession. Because GDP is coincident-to-lagging, by the time it turns negative the leading indicators (Initial Jobless Claims, PMI New Orders) have usually already signalled the downturn.