Labour Market
Jobs, wages, and the supply of workers — the Fed's maximum-employment mandate.
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE)
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) is a measure of the average amount of money employees make per hour. It is a key indicator of wage inflation — when AHE rises faster than productivity, it can feed through into consumer prices and add pressu…
ReadContinuing Jobless Claims
Continuing Jobless Claims (also called continued claims) count people who have already filed an initial unemployment claim and continue to claim benefits for a week of unemployment. While Initial Jobless Claims measure the flow of new la…
ReadEmployment Cost Index (ECI)
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a broad measure of the changing cost of labor, including both wages and benefits (such as health insurance, paid leave, and retirement plans). It is broader than Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) because it…
ReadInitial Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims count the number of people filing first-time unemployment insurance claims after separation from an employer. "Initial" means they are filing for the very first time during this unemployment spell — distinct from C…
ReadJOLTS — Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
JOLTS measures the unmet demand for labor (job openings) and the churn of the labor market (hires, quits, layoffs, and other separations). It is the broadest single picture of how the labor market is moving, not just how big it is.
ReadLabor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)
The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is the percentage of the working-age population that is either currently employed or actively looking for work. A person who is retired, in school, sick, or has given up looking for a job is not…
ReadNonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) measures the total number of paid workers in the U.S. economy, with several specific categories excluded:
ReadUnemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate is the percentage of the labor force that is jobless, available for work, and actively seeking work. To be counted as unemployed, a person generally must have:
ReadIndicator Map#
Appendix Table#
| Indicator | Link | Source / Survey | Frequency | What It Tells Us | Indicator Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls | Open note | BLS, Current Employment Statistics (CES) | Monthly | Current job growth | Coincident |
| Average Hourly Earnings | Open note | BLS, CES | Monthly | Wage growth and inflation pressure | Lagging |
| Labor Force Participation Rate | Open note | BLS, Current Population Survey (CPS) | Monthly | Share of population working or looking for work | Coincident |
| Unemployment Rate | Open note | BLS, CPS | Monthly | Share of labor force unemployed and actively seeking work | Lagging |
| Initial Jobless Claims | Open note | U.S. Dept. of Labor, ETA / State UI offices | Weekly | Fresh layoffs | Leading |
| Continuing Jobless Claims | Open note | U.S. Dept. of Labor, ETA / State UI offices | Weekly | People still receiving unemployment benefits | Lagging |
| JOLTS | Open note | BLS, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey | Monthly | Job openings, hires, quits, layoffs, and separations | Mixed |
| Employment Cost Index | Open note | BLS, National Compensation Survey (NCS) | Quarterly | Employer labor costs for wages, salaries, and benefits | Lagging |
How To Read#
- Hiring now: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) shows current job creation in the nonfarm economy.
- Early layoff warning: Initial Jobless Claims moves faster than any monthly labor report.
- Job-finding difficulty: Continuing Jobless Claims shows whether unemployed workers remain on benefits.
- Labor demand before hiring: JOLTS — Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows openings and quits before they fully appear in payroll data.
- Worker supply: Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) shows whether people are entering or leaving the labor force.
- Confirmation of weakness: Unemployment Rate often confirms weakness after it has already started.
- Wage pressure: Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) (monthly) and Employment Cost Index (ECI) (quarterly) show pay and compensation inflation.
Clean Macro Read#
A strong labour market shows solid Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), low Initial Jobless Claims, manageable Continuing Jobless Claims, high job openings and quits, stable or rising Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), low Unemployment Rate, and wage growth in Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) and Employment Cost Index (ECI) that is firm but not yet inflationary.